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Analysis of more than 36,000 buildings affected by the January Victorian bushfires shows why broad hazard assessments alone cannot reveal the vulnerability of individual properties
SYDNEY, Sept. 10, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — New Nearmap analysis found that properties assessed as highly vulnerable to bushfire were 3.6 times more likely to be destroyed or badly damaged during the January 2026 Victorian bushfires than properties rated least vulnerable.
Among properties close to the fire front, 6.6% of those in the most vulnerable group were destroyed or badly damaged, compared with 1.8% of those rated least vulnerable. The findings highlight a critical distinction for insurers: broad hazard assessments can identify where bushfire risk is elevated, but they do not necessarily show which individual properties within an exposed area are most vulnerable.
The analysis comes as an active El Niño and seasonal outlooks indicate heightened bushfire risk across parts of Australia into spring and summer.
“El Niño and seasonal outlooks tell insurers where elevated bushfire risk may exist, but property intelligence helps show which properties within those areas may be most vulnerable,” said Andy Watt, Nearmap CEO.
“The challenge is not simply understanding that a postcode or corridor is exposed to bushfire. It’s understanding how that risk varies from one property to the next. When insurers can see property condition, vegetation and defensible space at scale, they can move from a broad view of hazard to a much more precise understanding of where vulnerability is concentrated.”
Same fire, different property outcomes
Nearmap examined the January 2026 Victorian bushfires using imagery captured before and after the events, creating a consistent view of individual properties and how they were affected. The analysis examined 36,012 buildings located within 500 metres of a building classified as destroyed or badly damaged. This included 2,980 buildings classified as destroyed or badly damaged.
For properties with usable pre-event imagery, Nearmap compared its Bushfire Vulnerability Score with post-event outcomes, finding a pronounced concentration of losses among the most vulnerable properties.
The analysis also found a consistent relationship between defensible space and outcomes. Among homes that survived, properties located within 100 metres of a destroyed building had more cleared ground across every zone assessed.
The findings demonstrate that proximity to a fire front alone does not determine the outcome. Even within the same exposed area, individual property characteristics can materially affect vulnerability.
Moving beyond postcode-level assessments
The findings highlight a key limitation of postcode-level risk assessments. While they identify where exposure exists, they don’t show which properties are most vulnerable. Property-level intelligence helps insurers make more informed decisions before and after a bushfire event. Property condition, roof characteristics, vegetation and defensible space can also provide additional evidence for loss-control programmes and prevention efforts.
“The forecast and hazard outlook are important signals, but they are not the whole picture,” said Watt. “The insurers that can see their properties clearly before an event, and assess what has changed when an event occurs, are better positioned to make informed decisions across underwriting, prevention and claims. Property intelligence gives insurers that visibility at the level where risk actually exists; the property.”
During an event, recent pre-event imagery establishes a baseline for what existed before the fire. Post-event imagery can then help determine what changed, allowing insurers to move more quickly from understanding where a fire travelled to understanding which individual properties were affected.
About Nearmap
Nearmap is a global property intelligence company redefining how organizations understand and act on the built environment. By owning the entire intelligence value chain—from high-recency geospatial capture powered by patented camera technology to accurate AI-derived analytics and guaranteed building materials data—Nearmap delivers a single, trusted source of truth for property decisions. Insurers, government agencies, and AECO organizations rely on Nearmap to transform property uncertainty into evidence, helping organizations move beyond fragmented data and manual processes with verified, frequently updated insight. These proprietary insights enable faster, more confident decisions across underwriting and claims, assessment and response, and planning and construction so teams can see truth, assess risk, and act with certainty. Founded in Australia in 2007, Nearmap stands as the definitive source of truth that shapes the livable world.
For more information, visit www.nearmap.com.
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